北京地区城市暴雨积涝灾害风险预评估  

The Pre-event Risk Assessment of Beijing Urban Flood

作　　者：扈海波[1] 轩春怡[2] 诸立尚[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089 [2]北京市气象局,北京100089 [3]首都师范大学,北京100048

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2013年第1期99-108,共10页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41175099);北京市自然科学基金项目(9102009);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用重点项目(CMAGJ2011M03);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项基金(IUMKY201207);北京市科技计划项目(Z111100056811022)

摘　　要：该文提出自下而上的城市暴雨积涝灾害风险定量评估方法,即在三级评估指标体系下,由下级指标综合核算上级指标系数。在第2级指标计算中,风险区划的危险性指数由历史降水量资料推算得出,风险预警则用实况及预报降水量来计算致灾因子危险性指数;暴雨敏感性指数综合叠加地形、不透水地表因子及河网密度得出;暴雨积涝的风险暴露因子侧重地均人口密度、地均GDP及重点防汛指标等因子,着重于城市地区人口、经济、防汛重点目标的暴露程度。然后在危险性、敏感性及暴露性指数的基础上叠加得出积涝风险指数。通过对比发现,得到的风险区划结果与2004—2008年北京地区暴雨积涝的历史灾情基本吻合。最后,选用北京2011年"6.23"暴雨作风险预警的实例应用检验及分析,结果表明:采用自下而上的快速风险评估结果与积涝的实际发生情况较为接近,无论是风险变化趋势还是风险区域分布情况均与当天的积涝发生情况基本吻合。即该方法能较为准确、快捷地圈定城市地区各级风险区域,能较好地满足风险评估、区划及风险预警的要求。A three-level index system for urban flood risk assessment is put forward, in which higher level inde- xes of the system can be calculated from lower level indexes following a bottom-to-up deducing rule. The possibility estimation of risk zoning can be conducted in two ways. The first way is based on historical da- ta. 100 extreme storms in study areas are selected from historical storm data, and then the precipitation of these rainstorms in the area are interpolated for 100 times, followed by summing up risk values of these storm events for each grid cell. The second way is based on observation and forecasting precipitation data. Sensitive indexes are determined by evaluating the effects of land surface topography, impervious surface area and river network on flood formation. The sensitive index of topography is obtained by considering land relief and elevation in each grid cell, and the measurement transforms land topographical characteris- tics into flood risk sensitivity. Impervious surface also plays an important role in flood formation since it greatly reduces water infiltration, quickens stream flow peaks, and increases storm flow. On the other hand, population density and GDP per square kilometer as well as distribution of critical areas for flood controlling are indicators for exposure in the flood risk analysis. As a result, the comprehensive flood risk indexes have been deduced by integrating the estimated second-level indexes （the precipitation index, the sensitive index and the exposure index）. The application of the flood risk zoning with the bottom-to-up as- sessment method indicates that the risk zoning areas can be promptly accomplished by this way, estimating the distribution of actual risk areas properly. Meanwhile, it is found that the flood risk in urban is higher than that of rural and suburb, because the urban is flat in topography with much larger areas with impervi- ous surface, and its population and economic entities are more heavily aggregated, and the rainstorm possi- bility is gr

关 键 词：城市积涝 风险评估 空间网格 暴雨积涝 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]