中国东北地区冬季气温变化特征及其与大气环流异常的关系  

Winter temperature variability and its relationship with atmospheric circulation anomalies in Northeast China

作　　者：沈志超[1,2] 任国玉[2] 李娇[1,3] 孙秀宝[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]铁岭市气象局,辽宁铁岭112000

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2013年第1期47-54,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2007BAC29B02;2007BAC03A01)资助

摘　　要：利用1957—2010年冬季中国东北地区90个站气温资料,应用REOF和聚类分析方法将东北地区划分为南、北两个冬季气温变化子区,分析讨论其冬季气温变化趋势和冷暖异常特征,及其与主要环流指数之间的同期和滞后关系。使用向后去除变量选择法,选取最优预测因子,并建立了全区和各子区的回归统计模型。结果表明:中国东北地区冬季增温较明显,平均上升速率为0.45℃/10 a,北部略高;与同期欧亚纬向环流指数之间存在着较显著相关;前期8月东太平洋副热带高压面积指数、前期10月亚洲区极涡面积指数和前期8月北半球极涡面积指数与中国东北地区冬季气温存在着显著相关,复相关系数为0.70,并且是回归方程最关键预测因子。在对冷、暖冬预测时,可以将选定时段和区域副热带高压和极涡面积指数作为重要的影响因素,且误报率较低。Based on air temperature data from 90 metrological stations in winter from 1957 to 2010 in the northeast China,the study area was divided into the south and north subregions in terms of winter air temperature using methods of a rotated empirical orthogonal function（REOF） and a cluster analysis. The variation trends of winter air temperature and warm and cold winter were analyzed, and their relationships with main circulation indexes were discussed. The optimum forecast factor was selected by a back-method, and regression models were built in the whole study area and two subregions. The results indicate that winter air temperature increases obviously in the northeast China, and the ratio reaches 0. 45 ℃/10 a, especially in the north area. The correlation between winter air temperature and the simultaneous Euro-Asian zonal circulation indexes is significant. The subtropical high area in- dex in August in the east Pacific Ocean, polar vortex area index in October in the Asia area and polar vortex area index in August in the north hemisphere are in the significantly positive correlations with winter air temperature, and their multiple correlation coefficients all reach 0.70. The above three factors are the key forecast factors in re- gression equations. If the subtropical high and polar area indexes are used as the important influencing factors when it forecast cold winter and warm winter, the forecast effect is good.

关 键 词：东北地区 冬季气温 旋转主分量分析 环流指数 相关 预测 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P434