近50a黄河上游气候变化趋势和干湿界线波动分析  

On the Climate Change and Fluctuation of Climate Boundaries in the Headwaters of the Yellow River Basin in Recent 50 Years

作　　者：杜加强[1,2] 郭杨[1,2] 房孝磊[1] 刘成程[1,2] 王丽霞[1,2] 沈云[1,2] 张林波[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [2]国家环境保护区域生态过程与功能评估重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2013年第2期291-298,共8页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41001055);中国环境科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项资助项目(2009KYYW10);国家环保公益性行业科研专项经费资助(201209027-5)

摘　　要：利用黄河上游地区13个气象站点1959—2008年的气候资料,研究了黄河上游地区多个气候要素的变化,以30 a为时间尺度研究气候变化趋势的可行性。结果表明:区域东南部站点呈干暖化趋势,其他站点以湿暖化为主,变湿的趋势不显著,而变暖的趋势普遍且显著;东南部向着干旱化的方向发展,其他区域不显著;年平均气温和最低气温在1959—1988年、1969—1998年和1979—2008年3个时段呈持续增加趋势,最高气温仅在近30 a呈整体增加趋势;在最低气温和最高气温的共同作用下,1979—2008年年均气温的增幅最大;低海拔站点日照时数持续、显著减少,而高海拔的玛多、达日两站则呈显著增加趋势;相对湿度恰好相反,低海拔站点多呈增加趋势,高海拔站点多呈减少趋势。区域风速总体呈下降趋势,尤其是低海拔地区和后两个时段。采用30 a为时间尺度分析气候变化具有一定的可行性。In this paper, the temporal changes of climatic factors were analyzed using the daily meteorological data from 13 stations in the headwaters of the Yellow River Basin during the period from 1959 to 2008. The regional climate change was researched using the precipitation and evapotranspiration ratios estimated with the FAO Penman- Monteith model. The results are as follows ： ① Climate became obviously drier and warmer in the southeast part but wetter and warmer in other parts of the study area during the period of 1959 -2008. The warming trend was dominant; ② Average annual and minimum temperature was mainly in an increase trend during the periods of 1959 - 1988,1969 -1998 and 1979 -2008. The increase trend of maximum temperature occurred in recent 30 years; ③ Under the effects of increase of minimum and maximum temperature, the increase trend of average annual tempera- ture was the most obvious during the period of 1979 -2008; ④ Sunshine duration was in a significant decrease trend at the meteorological stations with lower elevation, and it was in an obvious increase trend at the Maduo and Dari stations with higher elevation ; ⑤ Increasing trend of relative humidity was dominant at the stations with lower elevation, but the relative humidity was in a decrease trend at most stations with higher elevation; ⑥ Wind speed was in a decrease trend, especially at the stations with lower elevation and during the latter two periods. Thirty-year time interval was feasible for analyzing climate change.

关 键 词：气候变化 气温 降水量 日照时数 相对湿度 风速 干湿界线 黄河上游 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]