t检验方法在评价水库地震中的应用  

Application of the t Test in Evaluation of Reservoir Earthquake

作　　者：钟羽云 周昕 卢显[2] 张帆 

机构地区：[1]浙江省地震局,浙江杭州310013 [2]中国地震台网中心,北京10045

出　　处：《华南地震》2012年第4期10-19,共10页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAC38B03-01)

摘　　要：引入t检验方法对中国1975年以后的30例水库地震震例进行了定量评价。评价中首先分别统计水库蓄水前、后水库区水域线20 km范围内的地震年频度作为统计检验的2个样本,然后通过F检验和t检验方法对2个样本的标准差和均值是否存在显著差异进行检验,根据标准差和均值检验结果判定水库蓄水是否诱发了地震活动。结果显示:①如果水库蓄水前后库区地震年频度标准差和平均值均发生了显著变化,则水库蓄水诱发了地震。②如果水库蓄水前后库区地震年频度标准差无明显变化,但地震年频度平均值变化显著,则水库蓄水可能诱发了地震。③如果水库蓄水前后库区地震年频度标准差和平均值均无明显变化,则水库蓄水没有诱发地震。With the use of introduced t-test method, this paper evaluated 30 cases of reservoir quantitatively after 1975. First, the evaluation result make a statistic about earthquake yearly average occurrence ratio around 20kin, before the impoundment of earthquakes as a sample, after impoundment as another sample. Then, with the use of the F test and t test to the 2 samples repectively, we known whether the standard deviation and average deviation of this two samples were the same and decide whether or not the impounding reservoir leaded to occurcence of earthquake. There are three possibilities： ① If the significant difference of earthquake frequency standard deviation and averages existed before the impoundment and after it, the impoundment induced earthquake. ② If earthquake frequency standard deviation does not change, the average changes, the impoundment may induced earthquake. ③If all of them do not change, the earthquake is not induced by the impoundment

关 键 词：T检验 水库地震 显著性差异 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]