近48年新疆石河子垦区气候变化的研究  

Study on Climatic Change in Shihezi Region in Resent 48 Years

作　　者：王秀琴[1] 张山清[2] 段维 

机构地区：[1]新疆石河子气象局,石河子832000 [2]新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局,乌鲁木齐830001 [3]新疆康地种业科技股份有限公司,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《石河子大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第3期289-295,共7页Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家农业科技成果转化资金项目(2011GB2G410014);新疆气象科研项目(200708)

摘　　要：根据新疆石河子垦区3个气象台站1961-2008年的历史气候资料,采用线性回归、Morlet小波和Manr-Ken-dall突变检测等方法,对该地区近48年的年平均气温、降水量、日照时数和平均风速以及年潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度等要素的变化趋势和变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:1)近48年石河子垦区年平均气温、降水量和日照时数呈升高(增多)趋势,年平均风速呈减小的趋势;2)石河子垦区潜在蒸散量与日照时数和平均风速呈极显著的正相关关系,与年降水量呈极显著的负相关关系,但与其年平均气温的相关性不显著。受其综合影响,潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度均呈减小趋势;3)突变检测结果表明,石河子垦区年平均气温、降水量分别在1970年和1986年发生了突变性的升高,年平均风速、潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度分别于1973年、1987年和1986年发生了极显著的突变性减小,日照时数未发生突变;4)各气候要素和潜在蒸散量、地表干燥度分别存在3-23年不同时间尺度的周期性变化。Based on the 48-year（1961-2008）climatology data collected from 3 meteorological stations in Shihezi region,we analyzed the features and trends of the changes in such climatic elements as annual mean temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours,wind speed,potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity index,by using linear regression,Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall abrupt examination.The main results are as follows：1）The annual mean temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours are increasing,but the annual average wind speed are decreasing;2）There are significant positive correlation between potential evapotranspiration and the annual average wind speed,annual sunshine hours,significant negative correlation with annual rainfall,insignificant correlation with annual mean temperature.In the comprehensive influence of climatic factors,the potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity index are decreasing;3）The the annual mean temperature and precipitation had the abrupt ascension in 1970 and 1986,annual average wind speed,annual Potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity index abruptly decreased in 1973,1987 and 1986 respectively,but the sunshine hours had no abrupt changes;4）Various climatic elements have the cyclical change of the 3a-23a criterion respectively.

关 键 词：石河子垦区 气候变化 潜在蒸散量 地表干燥度 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]