区域生态足迹动态变化及其预测研究——以海南省南渡江流域为例  

Study of dynamics change and prediction of region ecological footprint:a case of Nandu River Basin in Hainan province

作　　者：郭霞[1] 佘济云[1] 沈金明[1] 周丹华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2012年第6期92-96,共5页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：海南省林业局重点科研项目(LK20118478);森森经理学湖南省"十一五"重点学科资助项目(034-0014)

摘　　要：为了探讨南渡江流域历年的可持续性发展状况,利用生态足迹模型对流域2005年～2011年的人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力和人均生态盈亏进行了计算和分析,并在此基础上预测了流域未来4年的变化情况。结果表明:南渡江流域人均生态足迹需求逐年增加,人均生态承载能力逐年降低,至2011年存在人均-0.137 822 hm2/cap的生态赤字;通过SPSS软件中的Holt线性趋势预测模型得到2015年人均生态足迹需求为1.500 149 hm2/cap、人均生态承载力为0.898 368 hm2/cap、人均生态赤字为0.601 78 hm2/cap;说明该区域自2011年后将处于不可持续性发展状态。In order to investigate the sustainable development status for consecutive years of Nandu River basin, the per capita ecological footprint, per ecological carrying capacity and per ecological break-even of the River Basin in the year of 2005 ～ 2011 were calculated and analyzed by using the ecological footprint model, and based on the results, the changes of the River Basin for the future of 4 years were predicted. The results show that the demand of per capita ecological footprint increased year by year, the capacity of per ecological carrying reduced year by year, the ecological deficit was per 0.137 822 hme/cap to the year of 2011; By using the Holt linear trend prediction model of the SPSS software, the demand of per capita ecological footprint was obtained to be 1.500 149 hm^2/cap, the capacity of per ecological carrying was 0.898 368 hm^2/cap, the ecological deficit was -0.601 78 hm^2/cap, which indicated that the region will be in a unsustainable development situation since 2011.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态承载力 生态盈亏 南渡江流域 海南省 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学]