中国外汇储备的经济成本  

Economic Costs of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves

作　　者：王永中[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治所

出　　处：《金融评论》2012年第6期73-84,123,共12页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

摘　　要：论文首先构建了一个简明的外汇储备经济成本分析框架,其次深入分析了中国外汇储备的机会成本、冲销成本、经济扭曲成本、资产损失风险和金融稳定风险,最后提出了遏制中国外汇储备增长和加速外汇储备多元化的政策建议。研究发现,2001～2011年期间,中国外汇储备的年均机会成本为1140亿美元,占GDP的2.60%,而2011年的机会成本达3150亿美元,占GDP的4.33%;中国货币当局的冲销成本(央行票据和法定准备金存款的加权平均利率)先由2002年的0.93%稳步升至2008年2.57%,后降至2009～2011年的1.57%;2003～2011年,中国货币当局为发行央行票据、回购国债和增加的银行法定准备金存款而支付的总利息成本约为1.4～1.5万亿元,占2011年GDP的3.0%～3.2%。The paper establishes a simple analytical framework for costs of foreign exchange reserves,and then analyzes the opportunity cost,sterilization cost,economic distortion cost,asset loss risk,and financial stability risk of China's foreign exchange reserves,and puts forward policy suggestions on containing growth and accelerating diversification of China's international reserves.The paper finds that the average opportunity cost of China's foreign reserves is USD 114bn over the period from 2001 to 2011,and whose share in China's GDP is 2.60%,while the opportunity cost in 2011 attains USD 315bn,and its share in GDP amounts to 4.33%;the sterilization cost(weighted average interest rates of central bank bills and statutory reserve deposits)of Chinese monetary authority first steadily rose from 0.93% in 2002 to 2.57% in 2008,and then fell to 1.57% between 2009 and 2011;the total interest payments of Chinese monetary authority for issuing central bank bills,repurchasing treasuring bonds and increasing statutory reserve deposits reaches between USD 1.4bn and USD 1.5bn,and whose share in China's GDP in 2011 is around 3.0%-3.2%.

关 键 词：外汇储备 机会成本 冲销成本 经济扭曲成本 资产损失风险 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]