正交试验设计在股票定价模型中的应用  

The Application of Orthogonal Experimental Design in Stock Pricing Model

作　　者：连永亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]燕山大学理学院,秦皇岛燕山066004

出　　处：《河北经贸大学学报（综合版）》2012年第4期80-83,共4页Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business(Comprehensive Edition)

摘　　要：正交试验设计是一种高效、快速、经济的试验方法。随着经济的发展和社会的进步,正交试验设计已经在很多领域和行业得到广泛的应用,但在金融领域尤其是股票市场等偏向于定性的行业,正交试验设计的应用还是比较少的。以正交试验设计的理论方法为工具,选择股利增长率固定的股票定价模型为研究对象,用正交试验设计的直观分析法确定因素水平的最优组合方案,通过用正交试验设计的方差分析法讨论因素对股票价格影响的显著性可知,在公司股票的定价过程中,应加强对股票的折现率、留存收益比率、留存收益回报率和第一年年底股利四个因素的研究。Orthogonal experimental design is a high efficient, cost-efficient and fast experimental method. With the development of economy, orthogonal experimental design has been widely used in many fields. But in the financial industry, especially in stock market which concentrates more on qualitative analysis, the application of orthogonal experimental design is less. This paper makes use of the orthogonal experimental design theory as analysis tool and chooses the constant-growth rate dividend discount models as research object, use the visual analysis method to determine optimal combination plan for factor level. By utilizing analysis of variance to discuss the factor on significance the stock price, we can see that in the companies＂ stock pricing process, we should strengthen the analyses on the stock discount rate, retained earnings ratio, retained earnings rate of return and the first year bottom dividend four factors.

关 键 词：正交试验设计 股利增长率固定模型 直观分析 方差分析 

分 类 号：G312[文化科学] F830.91[经济管理—金融学]