气候变化条件下流域径流演变趋势分析  

Analysis of runoff trend in basin based on climate change

作　　者：樊慧静[1,2] 赵红莉[1] 蒋云钟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [2]辽宁省水文水资源勘测局沈阳分局,辽宁沈阳110005

出　　处：《中国水利水电科学研究院学报》2012年第3期174-179,共6页Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001024)

摘　　要：为了预测流域未来径流演变趋势,通过主分量分析、降尺度模型和SWAT模型,预测分析了流域在大气环流模型(GCMs)A2/B2气候情景下2010—2099年的日最高最低气温、日降水和月径流量。主分量分析提取大尺度下气候预测因子的主成分,降尺度模型利用提取的主成分预测站点的最高最低气温和降水,SWAT模型利用预测的站点数据计算未来径流量。结果表明,A2/B2两种气候情景下流域未来气温呈波动上升趋势,降水、径流均呈波动下降趋势,其中B2情景变化幅度大于A2情景。In order to forecast the future runoff trends in a basin, the daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily rainfall and monthly runoff of A2/B2 climate scenarios of General Circulation Models （GCMs） are predicted and analyzed by principal component analysis, downscaling model and SWAT model. Principal component analysis extracts principal components of climate predictors in large-scale climate, and downscaling model predicts the maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall in stations using the principal components, and SWAT model puts the predicted date in stations into the basin model to calculate future runoff .The results show that, in A2/B2 climate scenarios rainfall will show a fluctuating rise, and temperature and runoff will show a fluctuating fall, in which B2 is more unfavorable than A2.

关 键 词：大气环流模型(GCMs) A2 B2 主分量分析 统计降尺度模型 SWAT模型 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]