多年时滞港口经济贡献动态投入产出模型  

Multi-Year Time Lag Dynamic Input-Output Model on Port Economic Contribution

作　　者：姜超雁[1] 真虹[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海200082 [2]上海海事大学航运研究中心,上海200082

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2013年第1期163-168,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71172076);2011年度上海市政府决策咨询项目(2011-Z-54)

摘　　要：准确估计港口对区域经济的贡献是明确其在港口城市中心地位的关键.针对在市场经济条件下造成的港口投资不确定因素,考虑随着时间推移不确定因素的变化,将港口经济贡献和多年时滞港口投资问题联系起来,引入多年时滞投资系数,建立一种改良后可计算的多年时滞的港口经济贡献动态投入产出模型.运用该模型对上海港的经济贡献进行动态滚动式估算,得到有益的结果,验证了模型的可操作性和实用性.Accurate measurement of the contributions of the port to regional economy is the key to determine port＇ s central position in the city. Considering some uncertain factors in port investment, the paper proposes a computable and improved model on port economic contribution. In which, the economic contribution of port and the problem of multi-year time lag investment are involved and the investment coefficient is introduced relating to market economy of port. This paper takes Shanghai port as an example to dynamically estimate the economic contribution of rolling. The result shows that the proposed model is practicable and effective.

关 键 词：交通运输经济 港口经济贡献 多年时滞动态投入产出模型 港口 投资系数 

分 类 号：F552.7[经济管理—产业经济]