我国未来人口发展对耕地的需求分析  

The Analysis of Demand on Cultivated Land of China in the Future

作　　者：杨利民[1] 于闽[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省国土资源厅,中国湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《经济地理》2013年第2期168-171,共4页Economic Geography

基　　金：湖南省国土资源厅2012年科技计划项目(湖南省农村集体土地产权制度改革研究);湖南省科技计划项目(2010JT4023;2012FJ6069)

摘　　要：针对我国人均耕地持续降低及耕地质量普遍较低的严峻现状,利用一元线性回归法对我国未来粮食产量做出预测,运用中国人口预测软件CPPS对我国人口的变化趋势进行预测,通过耕地人口承载力指数测度人地关系状况。研究表明:未来耕地生产产能增长潜力较小,人口持续增长,并在2028年达到峰值14.37亿人,2011年以后人口承载力指数大于1,人口超载。未来耕地将面临更严峻的现实,必须采取切实有效的措施严格保护耕地。Based on the severe situation in which per capita cultivated land continues to drop while the quality of cultivated land is generally low in China, this paper makes a forecast of grain production in the future with ULR（a linear regression method ）, then predicts the population trends with the use of cPPS（China＇s population prediction software ） developed by the national population and family planning commission ,so as to measure the relation between human and land condition by the index of cultivated land population bearing capacity. The research reveals that the potential about production of cultivated land productivity growth in the future is small while population grows persistently, which will reach to the peak of 1.437 billion in 2028. After 2011, the index is greater than 1 and population overload, as a result that the cultivated land will fnce a more severe reality. Hence, we must take effective measures to strictly protect cultivated land.

关 键 词：耕地生产产能 人口增长 人口承载力 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]