证券分析师特征、利益冲突与盈余预测准确性  

Securities Analyst＇ Characteristic, Conflict of Interest and Accuracy of Earning Forecast

作　　者：管总平[1] 黄文锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国会计评论》2012年第4期371-394,共24页China Accounting Review

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(批准号11BGL024)的资助

摘　　要：本文通过理论模型和大样本数据研究了证券分析师发布盈余预测时存在的利益冲突问题。我们发现管理层、证券公司和分析师自身对盈余预测准确性都有显著的影响，这些影响在统计意义和经济意义上都是显著的，并且分析师自身的影响要比证券公司的影响更大。而且，机构投资者持股比例越高，分析师的盈余预测准确度会越低。进一步，我们也发现分析师自身对盈余预测准确性的影响很少一部分是被可观察到的分析师个人特征（比如性别、学历、相关工作经验、声誉、教育背景）解释，大部分都是被一些不可观察的或者难以计量的个人特征影响。我们的研究强调从管理层层面、证券公司层面和分析师个人层面来分析盈余预测准确性的重要性。Security Analysts are a special group in capital market. Their duty is collec- ting and analyzing all sorts of information and data related to listed companies, and thus mak- ing judgments on their investment value. Currently, the domestic/international theory and practical circles agreed that management, brokerage and individual analyst have significant effects on accuracy of earning forecast, but there are no empirical studies that have gave em- pirical evidence. The paper will study these conflicts of interest issues at the management, brokerage and individual analyst level. Through a large sample of listed companies in china, we empirical analyst the importance of management,brokerage,institutional investor and indi- vidual analyst at the accuracy of earning forecast aspect. We seek to answer two related ques- tions： （1） Is there a significant difference in accuracy of earning forecast across management, brokerage,institutional investor and individual analyst？ （2） if so, can observable demographic characteristics of individual analysts, such as gender, degree, relevant work experience, rep- utation, and education background, explain the variation in accuracy of earning forecast across individual analysts？ This study examines securities analyst＇ conflict of interest on earning forecast using theo- ry model and a large sample. We find that management,brokerage and individual analyst have significant effects on accuracy of earning forecast. The effects are both economically and sta- tistically significant, and the effects of individual analyst are stronger than the corresponding effects of brokerage. Additional the higher is the proportion of institutional investors holding, the lower is analysts＇ accuracy of earning forecast. We also find the individual analyst effects on accuracy of earning forecast can be partially explained by the analysts＇ characteristics such as gender, degree, relevant work experience, reputation, and education background. Most of individual analyst effects are affect

关 键 词：利益冲突 盈余预测准确性 证券分析师个人特征 固定效应 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]