广西降雨量变化趋势分析  

Analysis of Precipitation Change Trend in Guangxi Autonomous Region

作　　者：肖鹏嵩[1,2] 代俊峰[2] 王娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]桂林国家高新区工业园区建设管理局,广西桂林541004 [2]桂林理工大学环境科学与工程学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2013年第2期38-40,共3页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51009031);广西教育厅科技重点项目(201202ZD047);广西高等学校优秀人才资助计划

摘　　要：为了揭示广西降雨量的年际变化趋势,利用17个典型气象站点1957-2001年的降雨资料,采用距平百分率、线性趋势线、滑动平均、累积滤波器和Kendall秩次相关等方法,分析了广西平均降雨量的变化趋势。结果表明,广西降雨量年际间呈现一定的波动性,主要在偏丰、平水和偏枯之间变化。1957-1983年降雨量的丰枯时段历时较短,通常只有1～3a,1984年之后降雨量的丰枯历时时段增长。1957-2001年广西降雨量呈波动上升趋势,但变化趋势不显著。On the basis of the precipitation data at 17 metrological observation stations in Guangxi Autonomous Region from 1957 to 2001, the change tendency of annual rainfall is analyzed by using the anomaly percent, linear tendency, moving average curve, cumulative filter method and Kendall test method. The results indicate that the annual precipitation shows certain fluctuation and changes between relatively wet year, normal year and relatively dry year. The wet year and dry year period were usually one to three years during 1957--1983, but became longer after 1984. The precipitation showed an increase tendency during 1957--2001. However, the increase tendency was not obvious.

关 键 词：降雨量 变化趋势 统计分析 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]