1978—2011年甘肃粮食产量变化原因分析  

Analysis for the reasons of the grain output changes in Gansu during 1978—2011

作　　者：高彦鹏[1] 曹方 陈秉谱[1] 马燕玲 

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃省科学技术发展战略研究院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2013年第1期220-223,232,共5页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基金"甘肃省应对气候变化科技战略与政策研究"(1213007)

摘　　要：粮食产量变化受多种原因共同影响,通过对1978—2011年甘肃粮食产量与各影响因子统计资料实证分析,运用协整及Granger因果关系检验,进而构造脉冲响应函数。结果表明:有效灌溉面积、种植面积、受灾面积和化肥施用量是影响甘肃粮食产量的主要影响因子,其中种植面积对甘肃粮食产量的贡献呈现出边际递减趋势,有效灌溉面积与粮食产量互为因果关系,结果与甘肃省干旱缺水的实际情况吻合。根据分析结果提出相应对策建议。There are many reasons that effect the change of grain output.So,this article aims at empirically analysing the relationship between the grain output and these reasons in Gansu during 1978--2011, by using the mathods of cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and the impulse reponse function. The results show that the effective irrigation area, planting area, disaster area and chemicial fertilizer are the major effects to the grain output in Gansu. Among these, the contribution of the planting area to the Gansu grain output shows a marginal decline trend, the effective irrigation area and the grain output are the causal relationship to each other, which match the actual situation of dry and identical in Gansu. Finally, according to the results of analysis, we poin out the corresponding policy recommendations.

关 键 词：粮食产量 C-D生产函数 协整 格兰杰因果 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]