基于灰色系统预测北京市煤炭资源消耗的研究  

Study on the Forecasting of Coal Resource Consumption in Beijing City Based on the Grey System Theory

作　　者：秦凤华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《能源与节能》2013年第2期43-44,共2页Energy and Energy Conservation

摘　　要：针对北京市近年煤炭资源消耗政策的调整改革,通过建立灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,运用MATLAB软件对北京市2015年煤炭资源消耗量进行了预测,结果表明:2015年北京市煤炭消费将降到1 930×104t左右,综合考虑政府将因受环境约束而采取相关措施,预测平衡差额在300×104t左右。In allusion to the adjustment and reformation of coal resource consumption policy in Beijing city in recent years, via building grey system theory GM （ 1,1 ）model, the coal resource consumption of the year of 2015 in Beijing city was forecasted by MATLAB software.The result showed that the coal resource consumption of the year of 2015 in Beijing city will decrease to about 19.3 million tons, and because the government will take relevant measures because of environmental constraint, the forecasting balance is about 3 million tons.

关 键 词：煤炭消耗 灰色系统预测 MATLAB运算 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]