中小城市公交车车辆规模适量性研究  

Moderate research of mid-sized cities' bus scale

作　　者：胡列格[1] 刘荣[1] 王佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2013年第1期98-102,共5页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：长沙理工大学公路工程省部共建教育部重点实验室开放基金资助项目(kfj100104);湖南省科技厅科技计划项目(2011FJ6032)

摘　　要：通过对全方式交通分担中公交车所占比例以及公交车保有量预测模型2个方面进行分析,进行中小城市公交车车辆规模的适量性研究。讨论公交车分担率的合理范围,研究Logit模型中参数的标定及统计方法的检验,并结合预测模型进行了保有量的论证;最后,对怀化市公交车保有量进行实例分析,证明该模型具有一定的实用价值,可以为中小城市特定年份的公交车车辆规模预测提供理论依据。The mid - sized cities＇ bus scale was studied from two aspects, i.e. , percentage of bus among trans-portation sharing and the bus quantity predicting model. Firstly, the reasonable scopes of the share ratio was dis- cussed, than parameter calibration in Logit model and statistical methods for testing were researched, and com-bined with the predictions of the model, the argument of quantity was conducted, at last, the bus quantity of Huaihua city was studied. The results show the model has a certain practical value, so it can provide a theoreti-cal basis for the mid - sized cities＇ bus vehicle scale forecast in the specific year and provide strong safeguard for the city public transport development.

关 键 词：公共交通 保有量 方式分担 LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]