基于GA-BP神经网络的省域经济风险预警研究——以安徽省为例  

Research on Pre-warning of the Provincial Economic Risk based on GA-BP Neural Network——A Case Study of Anhui Province

作　　者：后小仙[1] 马小刚 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院,上海200433 [2]中国农业银行郑州分行,河南郑州450052

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2013年第3期11-17,共7页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(12BJY001;10CJY074);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2010ZDAXM019);教育部人文社科项目(12YJA790047);中国博士后科学基金项目(20110490063);江苏高校优势学科"审计科学与技术"预研课题项目

摘　　要：近年来,我国省域经济发展经受着国内外复杂环境的严峻考验,在政府债务、区域金融、产业调整、资源环境利用等方面存在着较多的矛盾与冲突。文章构建了省域经济风险评价指标体系和评价模型,利用安徽省1995-2011年经济运行的相关数据,对安徽省经济风险状况进行实证分析。研究结果表明,2012年安徽省经济状况已好转为稳定,2013年仍延续这一状况。说明金融危机等外部因素对安徽省的影响正在逐步减弱,国内宏观政策调控显现积极效果,在一系列有利因素和政策的支持下,安徽省经济总体状况良好。此外研究还发现,安徽经济在总体状况转好的态势下,在财政金融等领域仍存在较大风险,说明地方政府债务风险、区域性银行信贷紧缩等不利因素开始显化。In recent years, the provincial economic development has undertaken a severe test in the context of complicated international as well as domestic environment.There are increasingly more and more disputes and conflicts in the government debt, the regional finance, the industrial restructuring, and resource and environment exploitation.By utilizing the data from Anhui economic operation during the period of 1995-2011, this paper constructs the evaluation index system and evaluation model for the provincial economic risk, and analyzes Anhui＇ s economy from the positivistic viewpoint.The result demonstrates that the eeonomic development in Anhui is beeoming steady in 2012 and it goes to improvement in 2013, which explains the impact upon Anhui exerted by the financial crisis and other external factors is gradually weakening.The domestic macro-economic adjustment has brought about positive outcome which is supported by a series of favorable factors and policies.Anhui＇ s overall economy is positively growing.In addition, this paper finds that the overall economic situation in Anhui is improving, but there is a considerable amonnt of risk in areas such as finance and banking, It demonstrates the fact that unfavorable factors such as the local government debt risk and regional credit squeeze have been starting to pose problems.

关 键 词：省域经济 风险预警 指标体系 GA—BP神经网络 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]