基于情景规划的未来互联网应用分类  

Future Internet Application Classification Based on Scenario Planning

作　　者：龙炜[1] 齐佳音[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京邮电大学经济管理学院,北京100876

出　　处：《北京邮电大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第1期1-6,共6页Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB315805)

摘　　要：互联网已成为信息社会的基础设施,作为互联网价值根本体现的各种应用层出不穷,在总结互联网应用发展趋势的基础上,运用情景规划的方法对未来互联网应用进行了分析。通过提炼关键趋势、关键不确定点,构建了未来互联网应用的情景矩阵,并阐述了4种应用类型的结构。最后总结了研究的结论和意义,阐述了进一步研究的重点。With the rapid development of information technology in decades, nowadays Internet has become a kind of infrastructure in the information society. Applications which can show fundamental value of Internet are keeping emerging. On the basis of summarizing the developing trends of future Internet application, scenario planning was used to analyze future Internet application. Through extracting key trends and key uncertainties, scenario matrix of future Internet application which describes four kinds of applications has been put forward. In the end, conclusion and implication of this research and key points of further study are discussed.

关 键 词：未来互联网 情景规划 应用分类 典型应用 

分 类 号：TP393.40[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]