基于GO法的LNG接收站气化外输系统可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis of Gasification Exporting System in LNG Terminal Based on GO Methodology

作　　者：徐长航[1] 陈习 朱渊[1] 孙晓平 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2013年第1期61-66,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金资助(ZR2011EL048);国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK03B08)

摘　　要：为保障液化天然气(LNG)接收站工艺系统生产的安全,基于GO法原理,对某接收站气化外输系统进行可靠性分析。在对系统工艺流程分析的基础上建立GO图,并采用概率公式算法分别对该系统进行可靠性定性与定量分析。结果表明:GO图简单实用,能够直观准确地表征系统工艺流程。GO运算得出气化外输系统的平均工作概率为0.977 814,平均维修时间为58 h,系统可连续稳定运行107天以上。由于数据是基于保守原则确定基本事件的,因此,计算所得可靠性结果可以作为气化外输系统安全可靠性的下限。To ensure the safety of process system of LNG terminal, GO methodology was used for the reliability analysis of gasification exporting system. Based on the analysis of gasification exporting system process, a GO program was developed and both qualitative and quantitative analyses were carried out with the probability formula algorithm The related research results show that the GO program is simple and prac- tical for its direct and accurate representation of the process system. The reliability of the system is 0.977 814, and the mean time to restoration is 58 hours. Therefore, it can work continuously for more than 107 days. Due to the conservative input data were used in the paper, the computed results can be used as the lower limit of reliability of gasification exporting system.

关 键 词：GO法 液化天然气(LNG) 接收站 可靠性 气体外输系统 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]