巴州地区局地暴雪过程诊断分析  

An Analysis of a Blizzard Episode in the Baingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture in Spring of 2011

作　　者：巴哈古力.买买提 

机构地区：[1]巴音郭楞蒙古自治州气象局,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2013年第1期28-32,共5页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

摘　　要：应用常规观测资料、自动气象站观测资料、天气图、物理量场和EC、T213预报产品等,对2011年春季新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州(简称巴州)一次历史同期罕见的局地暴雪天气过程进行分析。结果表明,伊朗和乌拉尔山高压脊同位相叠加是本次天气的主导系统;500 hPa横槽、850 hPa中尺度辐合的配合是影响系统;地面气温在0℃以下,850 hPa温度在-5℃左右,构成了本次暴雪的有利物理条件;垂直环流增强、高低空急流的耦合作用,为暴雪提供动力条件。数值预报对30 mm降水漏报,对暴雪预报造成一定难度;850 hPa温度与地面温度差值不稳定,影响降水相态预报,暴雪预报是本次预报的难点。通过分析得到了春季暴雪、强降温天气的预报指标。由于春季在新疆巴州出现暴雪天气过程极其罕见,分析此次暴雪天气过程,对提高预报员对此类罕见天气的认识和把握大有帮助。Employing conventional observation, automatic weather station observation ,weather charts, physical quantitive fields and EC,T213 forecast products at Baingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture in Xinjiang during the spring of 2011 ,this study analyzed a rarely-occurred local snowstorm episode.The results showed that the same phase superposition of Iran and Ural mountain ridges became the dominant weather system with the influence system of 500 hPa transverse trough of low pressure and 850 hPa mesoscale convergence;the surface temperature below 0 ℃ and the temperature of 850 hPa about -5℃ constituted the snowstorm advantageous physical conditions; vertical circulation enhanced jetstream coupling effect and provided dynamical condition for the snowstorm. Numerical prediction of 30 mm precipitation omission caused certain difficulty to snowstorm forecast;as the difference between 850 hPa and surface temperature was not stable,the accuracy of precipitation phase prediction was influenced leading to the difficulty of forecasting the snowstorm. Because snowstorm process is rarely occurred in spring at Bazhou in Xinjiang,the analysis of the spring snow and freezing weather forecast index will help to improve the understanding and forecast of the local weather.

关 键 词：暴雪 巴音郭楞蒙古自治州 中尺度辐合 天气过程分析 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]