玛纳斯河流域气候变化对参考蒸散量的影响  

Effects of Climate Change on Reference Evapotranspiration in the Manas River Valley

作　　者：李战超[1,2] 魏文寿[2] 陈荣毅[2] 王进 张明 

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]乌兰乌苏农业气象试验站,新疆石河子832021

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2013年第1期33-38,共6页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106043);国家重大科学研究计划"973"项目(2012CB956200)

摘　　要：蒸散量是内陆水循环的重要环节,探索西北干旱半干旱区气候因素对蒸散量的影响,有助于深入研究内陆水循环对气候变化的响应。本文利用玛纳斯河流域1964—2010年6个气象台站的日气温、风速、相对湿度等气候资料,通过Penman-Monteith公式估算玛纳斯河流域的参考作物蒸散量(RET),利用回归分析、Mann-Kendall等方法分析研究参考作物蒸散量的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)玛纳斯河流域参考作物蒸散量空间差异明显,除石河子外南部绿洲区参考作物蒸散量均大于北部绿洲边缘区,季节变化趋势也较北部明显。从季节上来看,玛纳斯河流域参考作物蒸散量季节变化差异显著,夏季是参考作物蒸散量变化的主要贡献者,其次是秋季大于春季,冬季的变化最小。(2)南部绿洲区平均风速的减小是参考作物蒸散量减少的主要原因,北部绿洲边缘区相对湿度的增加是参考作物蒸散量减少的主要原因。Evapotranspiration is a major link to inland water cycle,so exploration on the effect of climate factors on evapotranspiration in arid and semiarid regions in Northwestern China can contribute to further research in inland water cycle responding to climate change. Based on climatological data including daily temperature, wind speed and relative humidity from six meteorological stations in Manas River Valley from 1964 to 2010,through an estimation of reference evapotranspiration(RET)in the Manas River Valley using Penmam-Monteith Equation, space-time variation features of RET was analyzed by using regression analysis and Mann-Kendall method. The results are as follows.(1)There was an obvious spacial difference of RET in the Manas River Valley. Apart from Shihezi, RET in the south oasis was greater than that in the north oasis with more obvious change trend than the marginal zone of north oasis, the same as seasonal change trend. With respect to the obviously seasonal variation of the RET in Manas River Valley, the major contributor to RET is in summer followed by autumn, spring and winter.(2)The major reason for the decrease of RET was wind speed decrease in south oasis and increase of relative humidity in the north oasis fringe regions.

关 键 词：参考作物蒸散量 玛纳斯河流域 回归分析 Mann—Kendall 

分 类 号：P463.24[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]