基于R/S模型的和田市农业产业结构发展趋势研究  

Study on Development Trend of Agriculture Industry Structure Based on R/S Model in Hotan City

作　　者：阿孜古丽.阿布都外力 孜比布拉.司马义 周玄德[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2013年第4期1779-1781,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40861006);国际合作项目(41010104040)

摘　　要：分析了和田市的农业生产现状,运用R/S模型对和田市农业产业结构的变动情况进行探讨。结果表明,2003～2011年和田市农业生产总值呈上升趋势,在产值结构中种植业、林业呈波动变化,牧业、服务业的比重表现为增长,其中服务业的增长趋势明显;渔业产值比重呈现明显的下降趋势。根据R/S分析技术的Hurst指数、自相关系数Rt分析了和田市农业产业结构在未来几年变化趋势的持久性:农、林业的Hurst指数值小于0.5,趋势持久性不明显;牧渔、服务业的Hurst指数大于0.5,3者的变化趋势将继续持续,即渔业继续下降,牧业、服务业比重继续增加。The status of agriculture production in Hotan City was analyzed, the variation of agriculture industry structure was discussed by u- sing R/S model. The results showed that： total value of agricultural production indicated upward trend, planting and forestry varied with a fluctuation, the proportion of husbandray and service industry increased, especialy for service ; the proportion of fishery indicated obvious de- crease trend. According to Hurst and Rt, the variation trend of agriculture industry structure was analyzed： agriculture, forestry Hurst index value is less than 0.5, trend persistence is not obvious ; I-Iurst index of husbandry and fishery, service industry is greater than 0.5, the three trends will continue to be sustained, that fisheries continue to decline, animal husbandry, service industry continues to increase.

关 键 词：产业结构 农业 林业 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]