多米诺事故情景下的区域环境风险评价  

Regional environmental risk assessment under the scenarios of domino accidents

作　　者：张立[1] 钱瑜[1] 蔡云[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院,污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2013年第3期569-575,共7页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家"863"项目(2012AA063304);江苏省科技支撑计划(BE2011694)

摘　　要：将多米诺效应纳入化工区环境风险评价中,采用扩展概率模型和蒙特卡洛模拟的方法计算多米诺事故的概率,运用大气和水扩散模型模拟污染事故的后果,进而利用地理信息系统分析在多米诺事故情景下的区域环境风险水平.结果表明,研究区域67.5%的风险源能引发二次事故,平均每个初始事故引发9.58次二次事故、17.21次三次事故.二次事故情景和三次事故情景下的区域环境风险值分别是一次事故的6.40倍和12.33倍,多米诺效应明显放大了区域环境风险值,应成为今后风险防范的重点.Domino effect was incorporated into environmental risk assessment of a chemical industrial park, and the frequencies of domino accidents were calculated with escalation probability models and Monte Carlo simulation, the consequences of contamination accidents were simulated with atmospheric and water diffusion models, and the regional environmental risk under domino accidents scenarios was further analyzed in geographic information system. The results showed that 67.5% risk sources would spark secondary accidents and each primary accident could spark 9.58 secondary accidents on average, the regional environmental risk under secondary accident scenarios and third accident scenarios were 6.40 times and 12.33 times of the primary accident scenarios respectively. It is verified that the domino effect could expand regional risks obviously and should be controlled as the main risk factor.

关 键 词：多米诺效应 定量风险评价 蒙特卡洛模拟 后果计算 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]