基于证据推理的效能评估及其在临近空间多任务规划中的应用  

The Effectiveness of an Evaluation Model Based on Evidential Reasoning and its Application in the Planning of Multiple Missions in the Near Space

作　　者：彭张林[1,2] 濮剑鹏[1,2] 张登洲[1,2] 胡笑旋[1,2] 张强[1,2] 詹明明[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]过程优化与智能决策教育部重点实验室,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2013年第1期99-107,共9页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(70631003);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071045;71001032)

摘　　要：在临近空间系统多任务规划过程中,对不同的多任务规划场景下,临近空间系统综合效能及其变化规律的研究,可以帮助决策者寻找到相对最优的临近空间多任务规划方案。由于临近空间系统涉及多资源、多任务和复杂的内外部环境,影响其效能的因子较多且动态多变,因此,其效能评估将遇到多种确定性和不确定性因素共生环境下的评价问题,传统的方法难以独立处理该问题。鉴于此,将证据推理的方法引入效能评估中,设计了基于证据推理的效能评估模型,该模型综合考虑了无知、模糊、不准确、区间数和区间信念度等多种不确定性因素,并实现了多源证据的有效合成。最后,在实现的2组面向点目标的临近空间多任务规划仿真实验中,运用该模型分别计算出了不同场景下临近空间系统综合效能,计算结果显示资源数和任务数的变化对临近空间系统综合效能的影响符合客观规律,表明该模型具有一定的可用性。As military and commercial values of near space exploration increase, air vehicles （e. g. hypersonic vehicles and aerostats） installed in the near space are carrying more responsibility for military missions. Near space systems may have multiple military missions at the same time, and demand multi-mission planning. In the multi-mission planning, multiple alternatives may exist in order to meet the mission demand and resource attributes. However, what is the best planning alternative？ This paper intends to evaluate the effectiveness of near space systems under different planning situations and decide on a multi-mission planning solution to maximize or optimize the effectiveness of near space system evaluation. One central problem of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of near space systems. Near space systems involve dynamic variables, such as multiple resources, multiple missions, complex internal and external conditions. Therefore, traditional assessment methods will face the problem of evaluating the effectiveness of the coexistence of various certainties and uncertainties because they often deal with each variable independently. Evidential reasoning method considers various kinds of uncertainties, such as ignorance, fuzziness, interval data, and interval belief degrees, and can implement multiple sources of evidence. As such, the method can overcome the limitation of uncertain evaluations. In contrast, the traditional method deals with complex conditions and can effectively solve problems associated with the effectiveness evaluation of near space system to perform multiple missions. In view of this, this paper constructs an effectiveness evaluation model based on the evidential reasoning method, and applies the model in planning for performing multiple missions in the near space system. This paper is composed of two parts as follows： Firstly, this paper constructs an effectiveness evaluation model based on the evidential reasoning theory. This model is constructed by following seven steps：

关 键 词：证据推理 效能评估 多任务规划 临近空间 

分 类 号：V19[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]