基于消费者采纳网络的网上购物扩散模型——以中国网上购物为例  

The Diffusion Model of Online Shopping Based on Consumer Adoption Network——Taking Chinese Online Shopping as Example

作　　者：王核成[1] 应波[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《系统工程》2013年第1期78-84,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(70902047)

摘　　要：网上购物扩散对于开展电子商务的企业来说具有重要意义。本文通过结合网上购物历史扩散数据和消费者采纳网络结构特征,建立网上购物的扩散模型,弥补了以Bass模型或其扩展模型研究网上购物扩散而忽略消费者内部影响程度变化的缺陷。通过对中国网上购物扩散数据的实证研究发现:基于消费者采纳网络的网上购物扩散模型较好地拟合了样本数据;网上购物扩散主要依赖于消费者之间的口碑传播;基于消费者采纳网络的网上购物扩散模型揭示了消费者群体采纳网上购物的内部影响机制,研究结果有助于企业深入了解网上购物的扩散规律并制定有针对性的网络营销策略。将研究结果与Bass模型进行对比,发现模型的拟合度和预测精度都优于Bass模型。It is meaningful for the e-commerce businesses to study the online shopping diffusion mode. The online shopping diffusion model, based on consumer adoption network, combines the actual diffusion data and the characteristic of consumer adoption network, which offsets the deficiencies of Bass model or the expansion model ignoring how the consumers internal influence change. It is demonstrated from the empirical study on online shopping diffusion in China that the model based on consumer adoption network fits the actual online shopping diffusion data better ; online shopping diffusion mainly depends on the ＂word of mouth＂ between consumers＇ the model based on consumer adoption network reveals the inner influence mechanism of consumers adopting online shopping. These results could help enterprises better understand the diffusion rules of online shopping and make pertinent marketing strategies. By comparison with Bass model, the model has better fitting and forecasting accuracy.

关 键 词：电子商务 BASS模型 消费者采纳网络 网上购物扩散 

分 类 号：F716[经济管理—产业经济]