收入和价格对农户消费需求的影响——基于全国农村住户调查的实证分析  

THE EFFECTS OF INCOME AND PRICE TO RURAL HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION—THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL RURAL HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

作　　者：张玉梅[1,2] 王东杰[1,2] 吴建寨[1,2] 喻闻[1,2] 李志强[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [2]农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2013年第1期118-125,共8页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划重点项目<农产品数量安全智能分析与预警关键技术支撑系统及示范>(2009BADA9B00)

摘　　要：利用2009年6199户全国农村住户调查数据(占总样本量的10%),运用ELES-AIDS模型,估算农户的生活消费和食物消费的需求收入弹性和需求价格弹性,分析农户的消费需求特征,收入和价格对农户消费需求的影响,并模拟分析食品价格上涨对食物消费需求的影响.研究表明:农村居民生活消费水平进入到一个新阶段,收入提高后,农民注重提高生活质量,重点增加居住、文化教育娱乐、交通通讯和医疗保健的支出;在食物消费方面更加追求多样化,食物消费结构进一步优化,特别是对肉类、蔬菜和水果的消费需求将增长较快.价格仍然是影响农户消费的重要因素,食物价格的过快上涨,会对农户的食物消费结构调整产生一定的负面影响,即增加粮食、蔬菜等基本食物消费,而相应减少肉、蛋、奶和水产品的消费.加强菜篮子建设,稳定物价对于保障居民消费需求非常重要.China rural households’ life consumption and food demand are analyzed by using national household survey data of 2009 with the sample of 6199,which is about 10%of the total survey.The two stages method of ELES-AIDS is adopted. The demand elasticity of income and price are estimated to quantify the effects of income and price,and the rising of food price is simulated to analyze its impacts to food consumption.The results show that the consumption of rural households is rising to a new stage.Rural households will improve their life quality and increase more expenditure on residence,culture and education,entertainment,transportation and medical care,and pursue diversity food consumption,such as meat,vegetable, and fruits.Price is still a very important factor to rural household consumption.The rapid rising food price will have an impact on the structure of food consumption,i.e, grain and vegetable will be increased,while,meat,egg,milk,and aquatic product will be decreased.Shopping basket and price stabilization are still substantial to ensure rural households consumption.

关 键 词：农户 消费 调查 实证分析 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F323.8