风电大规模介入下计及负荷不确定性的电力系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Assessment of Power System with Large-Scale Wind Power Integration Considering Load Uncertainty

作　　者：汪新园[1] 郭瑞鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,杭州310027

出　　处：《华东电力》2013年第2期385-389,共5页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A118)~~

摘　　要：基于负荷预测的不确定性建立了峰荷的隶属函数,并结合负荷的离散概率分布建立了负荷的模糊概率模型。根据威布尔分布的风电场的风速模型,用蒙特卡罗仿真方法评估电力系统的可靠性。通过可靠性测试系统IEEE-RTS79,分析比较了没有风电接入和风电大规模接入的情况,讨论了增加风电机组和常规机组对电力系统可靠性的影响。This paper formulates a peak load membership function based on the load forecast uncertainty, and establi- shes the load fuzzy probability model by combining with the load discrete probability distribution. Monte Carlo simula- tion is conducted to assess power system reliability according to the wind speed Weibull distribution model. Through reliability test system IEEE-RTS79, the reliability indices before and after wind power access are compared and the effects on power system reliability are discussed after adding wind turbine generators and conventional generators.

关 键 词：风电接入 负荷模糊概率模型 蒙特卡罗抽样 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：TM74[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]