中国30年来贫富差距与社会和谐变动轨迹的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Changing Track of the Gap between the Rich and the Poor and Social Harmony in Past 30 Years in China

作　　者：彭定贇[1] 宋娇[1] 彭薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学经济学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《税务与经济》2013年第2期32-37,共6页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"收入差距扩大的诱因;影响和控制对策研究"(项目编号:12BJY033);教育部人文社科规划基金项目"中国现阶段贫富差距与社会和谐的动态关联研究"(项目编号:11YJA790113);武汉理工大学人文社科重点研究面上项目"收入差距控制与收入分配机制创新研究"(项目编号:2012-IB-091)资助

摘　　要：利用1980～2010年的时间序列数据,通过构造指标体系得到反映贫富差距与和谐社会的总指标。通过平稳性检验发现基尼系数与社会和谐度指标都是一阶单整的,进一步协整检验表明二者之间存在协整关系,说明贫富差距与社会和谐度之间是长期均衡的。在此基础上构建误差修正模型,得到了基尼系数与社会和谐度的短期变动模型,结果表明短期内基尼系数是影响社会和谐度的重大因素,轻微的变动就会带来社会和谐度的较大改变。政府需要采取及时的措施遏制贫富差距的继续扩大,通过进一步完善税收体制以及出台相应的福利政策,缩小居民间的收入差距,促进社会和谐发展。Based on time series data from 1980 to 2010, the total indicators reflecting the gap between the rich and the poor and harmonious society have been obtained by constructing index system. In stationary test, the Gi- ni coefficient and social harmony indicators are in the same order of integration. In cointegration test, these two factors are in cointegration relationship, which indicates that the gap between the rich and the poor and social harmony are in equilibrium in the long run. Based on this conclusion, error correction model is built to get the short-term changing model of Gini coefficient and social harmony. The result shows that Gini coefficient could se- riously affect social harmony, and minor changes will bring fluctuations in social harmony. Therefore, the government should take timely measures to prevent the gap between the poor and the rich, to improve tax system and to introduce some welfare policy in order to narrow the income gap between residents and promote the harmonious development of society.

关 键 词：贫富差距 基尼系数 社会和谐度 协整检验 

分 类 号：C913[经济管理] F124.7[社会学]