2013年中国小麦市场形势展望  

Forecast of China′s Wheat Market Situation in 2013

作　　者：程黔[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州华粮科技股份有限公司,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《农业展望》2013年第2期4-7,共4页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：2012年,在供需格局偏紧及最低收购价上调等因素支撑下,国内小麦市场迎来历史性辉煌。现货市场价格屡创历史新高,全国主要粮油批发市场三等白小麦交易均价为2355元/t,月比涨56元/t,较2011年同期上涨280元/t,年涨13.49%;各主产区累计收购新产小麦5619.1万t,比2011年同期增加281.7万t;虽然小麦播种面积略有下降,但单产大幅提高使得全国小麦产量达12058万t,较2011年增产318万t。预计2012/13年度全国小麦供给量约12260万t,需求量约12050万t,年度结余210万t,相比201112年度小麦供需有所改善;2013年国内小麦市场行情整体上涨格局不变,但在供需与政策影响下,价格波动空间或将加大,不排除出现阶段性行情。Under the support of tight wheat supply and demand pattern, increasing minimum wheat purchase price and other factors, domestic wheat market ushered in the historic glory in 2012. Spot market price reached record highs, in China＇s main oil wholesale market, the third -class white wheat average price was 2355 RMB per ton, increased 56 RMB per ton against last month and 280 RMB per ton against 2011, rose 13.49 percent compared to the same period of 2011; the nearly new wheat production from main producing areas added up to 56. 191 million tons, increased 2. 817 million tons from the same period of previous year; although the planting area of wheat decreased slightly, the total wheat yield was up to 120.58 million tons, grew 3.18 million tons from prior year because of the increasing yield per unit area. It＇s expected that the total wheat supply quantity will be 122.6 million tons, total demand quantity will be 120.5 million tons and the annual balance will be 2.1 million tons in 2012/13, which are improved compared with the wheat supply and demand in 2011/13; the domestic wheat market prices rising pattern will not be changed in 2013, however, under the influences of supply ＆ demand and policies, fluctuation spaces of wheat price will expand, we won＇t exclude the possibility of periodic market.

关 键 词：小麦 价格 行情分析 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]