近50年东江流域降雨径流变化趋势研究  

Fluctuation and Trends in Precipitation and Runoff in the Dongjiang River Basin over 50 years

作　　者：吕乐婷[1,2] 彭秋志[1,2] 廖剑宇[1,2] 江源[1,2] 康慕谊[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875

出　　处：《资源科学》2013年第3期514-520,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:41271104);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(编号:2012ZX07501002-004)

摘　　要：基于东江流域近50年降雨、径流数据集,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、线性回归等方法,对流域的降雨、径流变化趋势以及两者之间的耦合关系进行了统计分析。结果表明:①年尺度下,东江流域径流主要来源于降雨,而由于人为调控,径流量在年内分配趋于均匀化;②月尺度下,雨季径流对当季降雨响应更为明显,人类活动对径流影响则在旱季更为突出。随着时间推移,旱季径流逐渐由纯粹依赖降雨演变为更多由人工水库、闸坝等补给调控,即人类活动对东江径流的影响有增强趋势。Runoff in the Dongjiang River basin is mainly influenced by regional climatic factors such as precipitation, but is being modified by recently-accelerated human activities. To test the impacts of human activities on runoff, this paper analyzed trends in regional precipitation, surface runoff and the coupling relationship between them, through observed long-term rainfall and runoff data as well as evidences of human activities. Kriging interpolation was used to delineate precipitation isobars in upstream watershed beyond Boluo - a main flow gauging station near the final outlet of the basin. The moving average, linear regression, Mann - Kendall rank statistic test, and correlation analysis were used to examine trends and relationships between regional precipitation and runoff in Dongjiang River. We found that the runoff in the Dongjiang River Basin comes mainly from precipitation. Average annual precipitation and the quantity of runoff did not show a significant change in the past 50-year period. However, a trend of increasing runoff in the dry season （November to February） was found and thus the distribution of annual runoff within a year is growing. This was probably because of the construction of a number of dams and reservoirs in the upper-streams of the Dongjiang River＇ basin from 1958 - 1985. Those reservoirs for irrigation, water supply and flood-control evened downstream runoff by filling in at the flood season while draining out at the dry season. At a monthly scale, the response of runoff to seasonal precipitation was more obvious than ever before in the monsoon rainy season, whereas the impacts of human activities on runoff are more prominent in the dry season. In summary, runoff in the Dongjiang River basin has undergone a rapid evolution propelled by increasing regional economic development, and is now regulated by artificial reservoirs, sluices, dams and other water supply systems.

关 键 词：东江 降雨 径流 径流系数 变化趋势 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]