基于实时数据的道路承载力研究  

Research on Road Bearing Capacity Based on Real-time Data

作　　者：熊志华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2013年第3期125-130,135,共7页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(九七三)项目(2006CB705505);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2011JBM257)

摘　　要：为了有效地表征路网整体运行效率,通过速度与交通量的乘积建立路网承载力模型,并以海量交通数据为基础,借助可靠性工程思想对其可靠性进行评估。具体来说,首先通过大量数据进行路网运行特性分析,从而提出表征路网整体运行效率的承载力;然后,借助数理统计知识,对检测数据进行拟合分布检验,掌握路网承载力呈正态分布规律;再借助可靠性工程思想,具体分析路网承载力可靠性规律;在此基础上,归纳出路网承载力可靠性时空评价框架。结果表明借助路网承载力模型及其时空框架能有效地表征路网整体效率。To represent road network operation effectively, the model of bearing capacity （the product of speed and flow） is proposed, and the reliability of road network is also evaluated based on the mass traffic data with the aid of reliability engineering. Specifically, the bearing capacity is proposed after analyzing the operation characteristics of road network with existing mass data. Then, with the help of statistics knowledge and distribution fitting of the detect data, it is found that the values of bearing capacity of road network are normally distributed. Moreover, the reliability of the bearing capacity is analysed based on the reliability engineering, thus the evaluation framework of the bearing results show that the proposed model of bearing capacity network operation effectively. capacity changing with space-time is obtained. The and its space-time framework can represent road network operation effectively.

关 键 词：交通工程 承载力 可靠性工程 路网 实时数据 时空框架 

分 类 号：U491.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]