近百年气候变化及可能的自然影响因素研究进展  

Review of the climate change in recently one hundred years and the potential natural factors affected

作　　者：陈幸荣[1] 张志华[1] 蔡怡[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2013年第1期78-85,共8页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40976015);海洋公益性项目(201105019)

摘　　要：就国内外关于近百年的气候变化特征进行综述,并对太阳活动、火山爆发以及海气相互作用等自然因素对近百年气候变化的影响作了详细的总结。结果发现最近100年(1906—2005年)全球平均地表温度上升了0.56—0.92℃,中国的平均气温上升了(0.6±0.1)℃,但是20世纪全球和中国年平均降水没有明显的变化趋势。目前关于太阳活动、火山爆发和气候系统内部海气相互作用对于气候变化的影响,还存在很大的不确定性。This article is an overview for the characteristics of climate change in recent one hundred years. The impacts of natural factors such as solar activity, volcanic eruptions and air-sea interaction on climate change is summarized. It is showed that the average surface temperature has risen 0.56℃--0.92℃ globally and 0.6±0. 1℃ in China from 1906 to 2005. However, there＇s no obvious change of the annual mean precipitation in the global region and in China. There is still a great uncertainty of the impacts of solar activity, volcanic eruptions and air-sea interaction on climate change.

关 键 词：气候变化 太阳活动 火山爆发 海气相互作用 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]