合同能源管理项目的风险识别与综合评价  

Risk Identification and Comprehensive Evaluation in Energy Performance Contracting Projects in China

作　　者：黄志烨[1] 张跃松[2] 韩玥[3] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学,北京100081 [2]中国人民大学,北京100872 [3]史蒂文斯理工学院,美国新泽西07030

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2013年第1期48-52,共5页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究项目(11YJCZH072)

摘　　要：合同能源管理是解决节能减排问题的有效方式,但其实施和发展受到政治、经济、技术、信用机制等多方面的制约,面临极大的风险。针对目前大部分风险研究中忽视合同能源管理项目本质、理论研究与实践应用相脱节的问题,在分析合同能源管理项目运行流程及各阶段参与主体的基础上,对项目运行中所涉及的风险进行识别,设计了风险评价指标体系。并从合同能源管理项目风险评价的信息不完全性,以及人的认知的不确定性出发,建立了具有广泛适应性的灰色多层次评价模型,形成了适用于我国合同能源管理项目的风险评价体系,并进行了实证研究。Energy performance contracting （EPC） offers an effective way to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. However, affected by politics, economics, technology and credit mechanism, EPC becomes a high-risk undertaking in China. In regard to the negligence of energy performance contracting nature and the discrepancy between theories and practice in previous studies, in this paper, the operational process and the related participants in the EPC projects are focused on and the risk factors are identified, and correspondently the index system for risk assessment is designed. Furthermore, to deal with the assessment information imperfectability of EPC projects and the uncertainties in human cognitive ability, a risk assessment method for EPC projects in China is proposed by using a gray hierarchical evaluation model. Finally, the application of the proposed method is showed with an example.

关 键 词：合同能源管理 节能服务 风险识别 灰色多层次评价 

分 类 号：TU12[建筑科学—建筑理论]