压裂效果预测方法研究  

Research on Methods for Predicting Fracturing Effects

作　　者：曲悦铭[1] 张继成[1] 曲鑫 高爱利[1] 付程[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北石油大学石油工程学院,黑龙江大庆163318 [2]大庆油田天然气分公司油气加工一大队,黑龙江大庆163000

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第6期181-187,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：黑龙江省长江学者后备支持计划项目(2011CJHB005);黑龙江省新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(1155-NCET-001)

摘　　要：预测油井压裂效果对实施增产措施决策意义重大.应用科学的数学统计方法建立了大庆油田采油二厂某区块压裂措施库,采用灰色关联方法分析影响压裂效果的主要因素,应用多元回归方法、逐步回归方法、人工组合回归方法分别建立预测模型,进而建立起适用于不同压前含水和液量级别的预测图版,增油量绝对误差在1.5t以内的井的符合率达到77.4%.方法可操作性强,预测符合率较高,可用于指导优化压裂工艺,提高剩余储量动用程度.Forecasting fracturing effects of oil wells is of great importance for implement- ing simulation decisions. Using scientific mathematical and statistical methods, fracturing measure base of a block of No. 2 Oil Production Site in Daqing oilfield can be established in this paper. Primary factors which influence fracturing effects can be analyzed with gray correlation method, and forecasting fnodels can be established using multivariate regression method, stepwise regression method and artificial combination method respectively. Thus, fracturing charts can be protracted, which are applicable to different water cut and produced fluid levels before fracturing. Coincidence rate of wells whose absolute errors of incremental oil production are less than 1.5t reaches 77.4%. This method is feasible and practical, and there is a high coincidence rate of forecasting. This method can be used to direct optimized forecasting technology and improve the producing degree of remaining reserves.

关 键 词：多元线性回归 逐步回归 灰色关联 压后产能 预测图版 

分 类 号：TE357[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]