基于全寿命周期的变压器成本风险评估  

Risk Assessment of the Transformer Based on Life Cycle cost

作　　者：吴国威[1] 周辉[1] 潘巍巍[1] 王冲[2] 侯云鹤[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省电力公司,杭州310007 [2]香港大学深圳研究院,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《华东电力》2013年第3期532-536,共5页East China Electric Power

摘　　要：根据变压器全寿命周期的周期划分,将变压器全寿命周期成本划分为初始、运行、检修、故障及报废5个部分成本并建立其对应的模型。通过分析建立初始成本与全寿命周期成本的关系并优化得到最优的初始投资成本。通过分析变压器全寿命周期成本中的风险因素,利用模糊层次分析法建立了变压器全寿命周期成本风险评估体系。This paper proposes a risk-based life cycle cost assessment of the transformer. Firstly, the whole LCC of the transformer is periodically divided into five parts, i. e. , initial cost, operating cost, maintenance cost, fault cost and disposal cost. The model of LCC can te built based on the five costs. According to the analysis, the relalionship between the initial cost and the whole LCC is established by using the curve fitting method. The optimal initial cost that minimizes the whole LCC can be calculated. Second, risk sources of LCC are identified and associated risk index is established based on the proposed model. To quantify risks, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） method is used to establish the index of the cost of each stage. According to the index, the risks can be sorted based on the importance. The degree of risks of LCC can also be obtained according to the index.

关 键 词：全寿命周期 风险评估 模糊层次分析法 

分 类 号：TM41[电气工程—电器]