夏谷播期与籽粒产量的回归分析  

Regression Analysis of Different Sowing Times and Yield in Summer Foxtail Millet

作　　者：刘环 刘恩魁 周新建 张德荣 刘永平 刘红霞 侯升林[5] 宋银芳[5] 王新玉[5] 周汉章[5] 

机构地区：[1]深泽县农业局,河北深泽052560 [2]武安市农牧局,河北武安056300 [3]石家庄市农业局,河北石家庄050051 [4]深泽县职业技术教育中心,河北石家庄050035 [5]国家谷子改良中心,河北省农林科学院谷子研究所,河北省杂粮研究重点实验室

出　　处：《天津农业科学》2013年第3期77-82,共6页Tianjin Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河北省科技支撑计划项目(09250307D);农业部公益性行业科研专项(20120304201)

摘　　要：为了夏播谷子丰产,探索夏谷播期(转换值)与产量的最佳拟合曲线预测模型。采用田间小区试验和非线性回归分析的方法,对主要的11种函数模型进行模拟和比较。结果表明,夏谷播期对产量具有重要影响。二次曲线模型是模拟冀谷19与冀谷31播期与产量关系的最优模型。冀谷19的方程式为Yj19=10.978+0.066x-0.004x2,最适播期为6月18日,对应的最高产量为5625.15kg·hm-2,较对照(7月9日播种)增产17.53%;冀谷31的方程式为Yj31=11.532+0.039x-0.003x2,最适播期为6月17日,对应的最高产量为5829.40kg·hm-2,较对照增产18.72%。冀谷19与冀谷31的适播期均为6月12—24日,较对照平均增产16.8%以上。本研究确定的适宜播期,将为夏谷生产提供理论支撑。For bumper crop abundant harvest in summer foxtail millet, the best fitting curve prediction model of different sowing times and grain yield in summer foxtail millet was expored. To the main 11 kinds of function models, a few fitting models were simulated and compared by employing field plot experiment and nonlinear regression analysis. The results showed that the foxtail millet sowing times on grain yield had important influence. Quadratic curve model was the optimal model of sowing and yield relationships between simulated Jigu 19 and Jigu 31. Predicted equation of summer foxtail millet Jigu 19 was Yj19 = 10.978 ＋ 0.066x-0.004 x2, optimum sowing time for June 18, the corresponding maximum yield was 5 625.15 kg. hm-2, increased by 17.53% compared with control （July 9 seeding）; Equation of summer millet Jigu 31 was Yj31 = 11.532 ＋ 0.039x -0.003x2, optimum sowing time for June 17, corresponding maximum yield was 5 829.40 kg. hm-2, increased production 18.72%. This study has established appropriate sowing time,will provide the theoretical foundation for the summer foxtail millet production.

关 键 词：谷子 播期 产量 回归分析 

分 类 号：S515[农业科学—作物学]