货币流动性因素对国际大宗商品期货价格的影响  

The Effect of Monetary Liquidity on the Prices of International Commodity Futures

作　　者：吕志平[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学,北京市100081 [2]华中科技大学,湖北武汉430064

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2013年第3期101-106,共6页China Business and Market

摘　　要：以货币流通量为代表的货币流动性与国际大宗商品期货价格之间存在长期的协整关系和因果关系,货币流动性虽然对大宗商品期货价格波动存在一定影响(并不特别显著),两者在变动走势中始终保持趋势基本一致的变化,但是货币流动性并不是引起国际大宗商品期货价格变动的最主要因素。货币流动性对资产价格具有影响,主要是由于货币资产配置的因素——国际大宗商品期货价格作为资产价格之一也是货币资产配置的选择之一。国际大宗商品期货价格波动更多依赖于商品的供需关系,货币流动性大小仅是通过货币因素制约或活跃商品交易量而影响价格波动。There are the long-term cointegration and causal relationship between prices of international commodity futures and monetary liquidity represented by money in circulation; though there are some slight direct effects of monetary liquidity on the prices of international commodity futures, monetary liquidity is not the main causes for the fluctuation of prices of international commodity futures. The reason for why there are some impacts of monetary liquidity on asset prices is that, as one of the asset prices, the prices of international commodity futures is also one of the selections of monetary asset allocation. The fluctuation of prices of international commodity futures depends more on the supply-demand relation of commodity; and only with the help of monetary restriction and increase in trading volume, can monetary liquidity have some impacts on price fluctuation.

关 键 词：货币流动性 利率 货币流通量 国际大宗商品 期货价格 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]