财政政策规则、预期与居民消费——基于经济波动的视角  

Fiscal Policy Rule, Expectation and Private Consumption——From the Perspective of Business Cycles

作　　者：胡永刚[1] 郭长林[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2013年第3期96-107,共12页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：在经济发生波动时,财政政策是政府调控经济的重要手段,在中国尤其如此。通过在动态随机一般均衡模型中引入以产出和通货膨胀为反应变量的财政支出规则,本文分析了财政政策对居民消费的影响。分析结果表明,在引入财政支出规则后,除了通过财富效应影响居民消费,财政政策还能够通过居民预期改变其消费行为。不仅如此,财政政策的预期效应取决于其对产出和通货膨胀的反应程度,只有当反应程度达到一定临界值时,预期效应才会显现,反应程度过大或过小都会使财富效应占据主导地位,最终导致财政政策扩张挤出居民消费。在此基础上,本文通过对中国1996Q1—2011Q4的季度数据进行经验分析发现,财政支出在样本期内对产出具有明显的反馈。财政支出扩张会导致居民消费增加,其中预期发挥着较为重要的作用。When the economy has large fluctuations, the government will use fiscal policy to stabilize it, it is just the case in China. By introducing a fiscal policy rule targeting output and inflation into a DSGE model with price rigidity, this paper analyzes the effect of fiscal policy on private consumption. The results suggest that under a feedback rule, fiscal policy can affect consumption through two channels ： wealth effect and expectation effect. The magnitude of expectation effect depends on the response of fiscal policy to output and inflation. Specifically, expectation effect becomes significant when the response is large enough but not too large. With the guidance of above theoretical results, we also analyze the effects of government spending empirically. Based on the quarterly data during 1996Q1 and 2011Q4, we find that the fiscal policy rule can be uncovered from the data and the government spending has positive effect on private consumption while the expectation effect plays an important role.

关 键 词：财政政策规则 预期 居民消费 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学]