实际有效汇率波动的价格传导效应  

Price Pass-through Effect of Real Effective Exchange Rate Fluctuation

作　　者：苏为华[1,2] 余骁[1] 任洒洒[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江财经学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2013年第2期83-91,共9页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：浙江工商大学研究生科技创新重点项目<对中国汇率传递效应的研究>(1020XJ1511038)

摘　　要：文章通过引入关税以及配送成本对人民币实际有效汇率波动的价格传递效应进行了检验,发现配送成本显著降低了这一传递效应。短期内由于较高的人民币升值预期、全球流动性过剩以及人民币均衡汇率的位置尚不明晰导致人民币汇率波动对物价产生刺激作用。根据投入产出模型的研究,较高的边际劳动产出将使得随劳动投入的增加,物流配送成本会较快增长进而在未来较大影响中国的通货膨胀。此外由于中国进口品中超过82%用于中间投入、较多"两头在外"型企业的存在使得单位物流成本变动对消费者价格的平均影响较部分发达国家低。The paper investigates the RMB exchange rate pass-through by introducing variables of tariff and distribution. It is found that the distribution cost can reduce exchange rate pass-through observably. In short period, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will stimulate commodity prices to raise due to a high appreciation expectation of RMB, the surplus of world＇s liquidity and the market＇s doubt of which level the equilibrium exchange rate should be. On the basis of input-output model, the higher marginal labor output will lead the increase of logistic cost vastly by the increase of labor input, and influence the inflation in future. Besides, more than 82% of the imports are used as intermediate inputs, and so many “two outstanding”enterprises lead to that the logistic cost has low influ- ence to Consumer Price when compared with some developed countries.

关 键 词：关税 配送成本 汇率传递 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]