中国水资源利用效率评估模型构建及应用  

New model for water use efficiency evaluation of China and its application

作　　者：高媛媛[1] 许新宜[1] 王红瑞[1] 高雄[1] 殷小琳[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院泥沙研究所,北京100048

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第3期776-784,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51279006);水利部节水型社会建设项目:水综节水[2007]4号

摘　　要：构建了一种基于投影寻踪及遗传算法的水资源利用效率评估模型.首先运用层次分析法(AHP)对指标集进行筛选,利用Ward系统聚类方法划分样本初始等级;以初始等级和所选指标为基础建立投影寻踪模型;采用遗传算法进行求解.并将所构建的模型应用于对我国31个省级行政区的水资源利用效率进行评估.根据模型计算结果,北京、天津、山西等地水资源利用效率较高,而宁夏、广西、西藏等水资源利用效率低.分析发现中国水资源利用效率具有较为明显的地域特征和区域差异,其基本趋势是:水资源短缺压力较大或经济较发达的地区水资源利用效率相对较高;反之亦然.水资源利用效率较高的地区呈现出万元工业增加值用水量少、去变异化农业用水效率高、人均GDP高等显著特点.Water use efficiency evaluation model based on projection pursuit was developed in this study. Indexes were screened by analytic hierarchy process （AHP）; Ward hierarchical cluster method was used for initial classification. Based on these, the evaluation with projection pursuit was established; and genetic algorithm was used for the solution of the model. Water use efficiency of the 31 provincial administrative regions was evaluated applying the model established. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi and so on were ranked into the category with high water use efficiency; water use efficiency was low in Ningxia, Guang^i, Tibet and so on. The results show that water use efficiency in China has obvious territorial characteristics and regional differences. The basic trend is that water resources is used more efficiently in the regions with higher water shortage stress or advanced economy. In the regions where water resources is much more abundant or economy is underdeveloped, water use efficiency is not relatively lower. Lower water consumed for per unit of industrial added production, higher agricultural water use efficiency and higher GDP per capita are the primary features of the regions with high water use efficiency.

关 键 词：水资源利用效率 投影寻踪 遗传算法 Ward系统聚类 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]