我国货币政策有效性的实证分析——基于2008年～2011年季度数据  

Empirical Analysis of Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy——Based on Quarterly Data From 2008-2011

作　　者：葛腾飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学工商学院,安徽马鞍山243002

出　　处：《洛阳理工学院学报（社会科学版）》2013年第1期22-25,共4页Journal of Luoyang Institute of Science and Technology：Social Science Edition

基　　金：安徽省2012年度高校省级优秀青年人才基金人文社科重点项目(2012SQRW206ZD)

摘　　要：以2008年～2011年的经济金融季度数据作为样本,以货币供应量为货币政策的中间目标变量,以通货膨胀率和GDP增长率作为其最终目标变量,构造向量自回归模型并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量方法,对我国货币政策的有效性进行实证分析。结果显示,样本期内我国货币政策效果显著有效且存在2个季度的时滞。This paper tests the effectiveness of monetary policy by applying quarterly economic data from 2008 to 2011. Using the quantity of money supply as an intermediate target variable, the author sets up VAR models and impulse response function about the quantity of money supply, GDP and inflation. The result shows that： the fluctuation of money supply has a significant impact on prices and economic growth. Furthermore, what should be reiterated is that the price stability is the primary objective of the monetary policy, and that the steps should be taken to minimize the time Lag of monetary policy in order to stabihze the public inflation expectancy.

关 键 词：货币政策 有效性 通货膨胀 经济增长 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] F061.9