钻井周期预测新方法——以塔里木油田为例  

A new method for drilling cycle prediction: A case study from the Tarim Oil Field

作　　者：张伟文[1] 朱达江[2] 张阳春[1] 徐翔[1] 蒋蓉[1] 林元华[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油塔里木油田公司概预算管理部 [2]西南石油大学石油管力学和环境行为重点实验室

出　　处：《天然气工业》2013年第3期68-72,共5页Natural Gas Industry

摘　　要：钻井周期是油气田进行工程投资测算、勘探开发钻机部署的一个关键参数。为此,系统分析了国内石油钻井周期定额统计方法(经验估算法、统计分析法、技术测定法等),在中国石油天然气股份有限公司现用的"3、5、2"分段加权平均法钻井周期定额预测模型的基础上,提出了先用"黄金分割"原则处理已完钻时效数据,再用"3、5、2"分段法进行工时测算的新的钻井周期预测方法。改进后的预测钻井周期方法与地质深度、工程难度的联系更为紧密。应用该方法对塔里木油田轮南区块已完钻井实际数据进行了处理,对定额水平测算和分析结果表明,采用"黄金分割"测算的钻井周期工时定额值比"3、5、2"分段法测算值要先进1.23%～6.78%,先进率在工程实践允许的范围内。该研究成果已用于该油田哈得、轮古等7个区块的钻井周期定额编制,取得了良好效果。The drilling cycle is a key parameter in drilling investment budget preparation and rig deployment for oil/gas field develop- ment projects. Therefore, this paper made a systematic discussion on statistical analysis methods for drilling cycle prediction in Chi- na, e,g. empirical estimation, statistical analysis, technical determination, etc. Based on the ＂3, 5, 2＂ sectional weighted average method for the quota prediction model currently adopted by PetroChina, this paper proposed a new combination method for drilling cycle prediction. In this method, the time efficiency data about completed wells were processed by the golden section method before drilling cycle prediction was performed by the ＂3, 5, 2＂ sectional weighted average method. The improved drilling cycle prediction method was proved to be more closely associated with formation depth and technical difficulty. This new combination method was ap plied to the processing of the practical data about completed wells in Lunnan Block of the Tarim Oil Field. The quota calculation and analysis showed that the drilling cycle predicted by the golden section method is 1.23 6.78% more accurate than that predicted by the ＂3, 5, 2＂ sectional weighted average method. This accuracy rate is proven to be within the allowable range of engineering prac tice. The research findings have now been applied with great success to drilling cycle quota preparation for seven blocks of this field, including Hade and Lungu.

关 键 词：钻井周期 定额 预测 方法 应用 钻井周期定额编制 塔里木油田 

分 类 号：TE242[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]