华北地区天然气市场供需形势及解决方案  

Supply and demand situation in the natural gas market in North China and its solutions

作　　者：孙慧[1,2] 周璇[1] 杨义[2] 刘晓娟[2] 刘勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京) [2]中国石油规划总院

出　　处：《天然气工业》2013年第3期107-112,共6页Natural Gas Industry

摘　　要：以北京市为典型代表的华北地区是我国主要天然气消费市场之一,以采暖和发电为主,天然气消费量大且用气峰谷波动大,是每年冬季用气高峰时期供气的保障重点。为此,在梳理其天然气消费和用气特性的基础上,采用供需平衡分析法和不均匀性分析法对2015年和2020年华北地区的年量和日量供求进行评价,以期找出存在问题并提出相应的解决方案。结果表明,在考虑已知气源和新增气源的情况下,上游气源可保障华北地区的年需求量,2015年可满足高月均日用气量,但高月高日保障程度低;2020年无论高月均日用量,还是高月高日用量均无法满足。因此建议:加快沁水盆地煤层气开发、扩建或新建LNG接收站、新建输入型管线;上、下游通力合作,上游供气方承担季节调峰,可考虑加快储气库建设、不均匀采购LNG、发展可中断用户等;下游承担日调峰和小时调峰,可建设CNG、LNG等多种调峰方式,发展可中断用户等。North China, represented by Beijing, is one of the major natural gas markets in China, where gas consumption is domina- ted by residential heating and gas fueled power generation and will have to be guaranteed especially in winter times each year due to peak need and track fluctuations in natural gas demand. This paper aims to find out the existing problems and offer the corresponding solutions. To this end, supply and demand balance analysis and inequality analysis methods were adopted to evaluate both daily and yearly gas demand and supply in North China in 2015 and 2020 respectively. When the known and newly increased gas supply sources were both taken into account, the upstream gas resources will guarantee the yearly gas demand in the said two years in North China. In 2015, the average daily gas demand in peak months will be satisfied but gas demand in those peak days in peak months will hardly be guaranteed. But unfortunately in 2020, neither average daily demand nor high daily demand in peak months will be saris fled. On this basis, the following suggestions are made. （1） CBM gas exploration in the Qinshui Basin should be speeded up; more LNG terminals should be constructed; new input pipelines should be built. （2） Upon an overall cooperation, upstream suppliers should try to meet the gas demand in seasonal peaking times by means of implementing more underground gas storage projects, pur- chasing LNG, developing more customers with interruptible loads, etc. , while downstream suppliers should undertake daily and hourly i^eak shaving bv adding CNG and LNG peaking modes as well as increasing interruDtible customers.

关 键 词：华北地区 北京市 天然气市场 供需预测 供需平衡 供应解决方案 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]