1961-2011年山东气候资源及气候生产力时空变化特征  

Spatial-temporal change of climate resources and climatic productivity in Shandong Province during 1961-2011

作　　者：韩玮[1] 韩永红[2] 杨沈斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044 [2]山东省滨州市环境保护局,滨州271000

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2013年第3期425-434,共10页Progress in Geography

基　　金：江苏高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)项目;江苏省农业气象重点实验室开放基金项目(JKLAM201205);南京信息工程大学博士启动基金项目(20110410)

摘　　要：基于山东省21个气象站1961-2011年的气象资料,利用线性趋势、IDW空间插值、Mann-Kendall检验、Fisher最优分割等方法分析了气温和降水的时空变化特征;在此基础上采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型对植被气候生产力的时空演变进行了研究,并探讨了气候生产力对气温和降水的敏感性。结果表明:近51年来山东省普遍增温,倾向率为0.359℃/10a,中部地区升温明显;年降水量在剧烈波动中略呈下降趋势,20世纪80年代降水量的变率较大,山东北部、东部、东南部降水量减少幅度较大。近51年来气候生产力存在较明显波动,总体呈增加趋势,但递增速度不显著,1981-1989年气候生产力最低,2003-2011年达到最高水平;气候生产力由北向南,由西向东逐渐增加,山东西南部气候生产力增加较多。"暖湿型"气候对作物气候生产力有利,气候变暖有利于气候生产力的提高,但降水量少是限制气候生产力的主要因素。Based on the meteorological data of 21 weather stations of Shandong Province during 1961-2011, the spatial and temporal changes of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by the methods of linear trend, IDW, Mann-Kendall, and Fisher optimal segmentation. Then, the climatic productivity was analyzed by Thomth- waite Memorial model, and the sensitivity of climatic productivity to temperature and precipitation was investi- gated. The results showed a general warming trend in the last 51 years in Shandong, with a tendency rate of 0.359~C/10a. The temperature increased distinctly in the central Shandong. The annual precipitation showed a downward trend with extreme fluctuations; the precipitation variability was high in the 80s of the 20th century. The precipitation decreased distinctly in north, south, and southeast. The climatic productivity exhibited obvious fluctuations with a slight increasing trend. The climatic productivity reached its minimum during 1981-1989, and reached its maximum during 2003-2011. The climatic productivity decreased gradually from south to north and from east to west, and the climatic productivity increased distinctly in southwest. The ＂warm-wet＂ climate is favorable to crop production and thus the climate warming is beneficial to the improvement of climatic produc- tivity in Shandong Province. However, little rainfall is the main limiting factor of the climatic productivity. More attention needs to be focused on the utilization of wnter re^nuret~

关 键 词：气候资源 时空变化 气候生产力 山东省 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]