利用网络规模迭加法估计泰州市暗娼和嫖客人群规模  

The application of network scale-up method on female sex workers and clients size estimation in Taizhou city

作　　者：还锡萍[1] 包水莲[2] 羊海涛[1] 徐金水[1] 邱涛[1] 张翔[3] 潘龙[3] 朱中奎[3] 郭巍[2] 王璐[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省疾病预防控制中心,南京210009 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心 [3]泰州市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防治科

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2013年第3期233-237,共5页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：基金项目：美国疾病预防控制中心全球艾滋病项目（1U2GPS001188）;中国疾病预防控制中心2011年青年科研基金（2011A104）

摘　　要：目的利用网络规模迭加法（NSUM）间接估计泰州市暗娼及嫖客人群规模。方法2011年8月至10月间在泰州市的泰兴市、靖江市对社区居民开展问卷调查，共获得2783名有效调查问卷。利用NSUM估计社区区民的社交网络规模，并以2010年泰州市18～60岁性别、年龄、文化程度构成为标准对估计结果进行校正，应用校正后的社交网络规模及调查对象认识暗娼或嫖客的人数及尊重程度，估计泰州市暗娼和嫖客人群规模。结果在2783名调查对象中，泰兴市1380名（占49．6％），靖江市1403名（占50．4％）；男性1334名（占47．9％），女性1449名（占52．1％）；调查对象年龄为（39．4±10．7）岁。应用原始数据进行分析，估计出泰州市居民社交网络规模均值为525名。按照性别、年龄、文化程度进行校正后泰州市居民社交网络规模均值为478名；应用反向预测法保留的7个已知人群（20—24岁男性人群、20～24岁女性人群、70岁以上女性人群、在读高中生、2010年离婚者、2010年生育女性者、残疾人）估计泰州市居民的社交网络规模的均值为419名；利用箱式图剔除异常后估计泰州市居民社交网络规模的均值为424名。应用NSUM估计泰州市暗娼人群规模为6370（95％叫：5886～6853）名，占当地15～49岁女性人数的0．52％（6370／1229980）；嫖客人群规模为15202（95％凹：14560～15847）名，占15～49岁男性人数的1．28％（15202／1190340），嫖客与暗娼的规模比值为2．39：1。结论应用NSUM可同时对暗娼及嫖客人群进行规模估计，操作简单、快捷，但估计结果会受到回忆偏倚、样本代表性等因素的影响。Objective To estimate the size of female sex workers and clients in Taizhou city. Methods A household survey using network scale-up method （NSUM） was conducted among the 3000 community residents in Taizhou city from August to October in 2011, which aimed to estimate the social network size （c value） of Taizhou residents, and the c value was adjusted by demographic characteristics, back estimation and outlier elimination. Using the adjusted c value, the number of acquaintance of female sex workers or clients and the respect level toward female sex workers or clients were used to estimate the size of female sex workers and clients. Results A total of 2783 valid questionnaires were collected, among which 1380（49.6% ） were collected from Taixing city, 1403 （50.4%） were collected from Jingjiang city. 1334 respondents were male （ 47. 9% ） and 1449 （ 47.9% ） respondents were female. The mean age was （39. 4 ± 10. 7 ） years. The average personal social network size using original data for Taizhou residents was 525 ,which differed from place, sex, age, educational level and marriage status. Using the remaining known populations through back estimation, the social network size was 419 and became 424 after the elimination ofoutliers. The estimated population size for female sex worker was 6370 （ 95% CI： 5886 - 6853 ） , which accounted for 0. 52% （6370/1 229 980） of the total number of female aged from 15 to 49. The estimated population size for clients was 15 202 （95% CI： 14 560 - 15 847 ） , which accounted for 1.28% （ 15 202/1 190 340） of the total number of males aged from 15 to 49 and the ration of clients to female sex worker was 2. 39： 1. Conclusion NSUM is an easy and quick way to estimate the size of female sex workers or clients, but the estimated sizes are subject to bias and error due to estimate effect and sample representativeness.

关 键 词：卖淫 预测 网络规模迭加法 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]