灰色系统理论在环境空气质量预测中的应用——以济南市为例  

Application of Grey System Model in Forecasting Ambient Environment Quality in Jinan City

作　　者：王文华[1] 郑昭佩[1] 梁兴军[1] 周慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学人口.资源与环境学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《绿色科技》2013年第3期123-126,共4页Journal of Green Science and Technology

基　　金：山东省高等学校科技计划项目(编号:J12LH04)资助

摘　　要：指出了灰色系统理论是由邓聚龙教授于1982年创立的,并在经济、气象、水利、交通运输、环境保护等众多领域得到了广泛应用。该理论体系中灰色预测GM(1,1)模型具有要求数据较少,原理简单有效,结果精度高等特点,适合对空气质量变化的预测。利用山东省济南市2001～2010年环境空气质量监测数据,分析了主要污染物(SO2、NO2和PM10)浓度的年际变化及其原因,并通过对其数据处理,建立了相应的GM(1,1)模型,对济南市未来五年空气质量做出预测。结果表明:在未来5年内,济南市SO2年平均浓度将呈现稳中有降的趋势,NO2和PM10则将呈现略微上升趋势。其中PM10仍是济南市最主要的污染物,是防治的重点。Grey System Theory was founded in 1982 by Professor Deng Julong,and it was widely used in the economy,weather, water conservancy, transportation, environmental protection and many other areas. The theory requires less data, and its principle is simple but efficient. The results can be in high precision and used in the prediction of air quality effectively. According to the 2001-2010 monitoring data of ambient air quality of Jinan City in Shandong province, the annual mean concentrations of the main pollutants （SO2, NO2 and PM10） is counted and the main causes are analyzed. After processing and analyzing monitoring data, the corresponding GM （1,1） model was builded based on gray system theory to predict the ambient air quality in the next five years in Jinan City. The results indicate that the predictions of SO2, NO2 and PM10 are able to meet the requirement of accuracy. In the next five years,the annual mean concentration of SO2 will decreased steadily and slightly,but NO2 and PM10 will rendered slightly on the rise.

关 键 词：环境空气质量 GM(1  1)模型 济南市 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]