基于因特网的重大事件旅游客流前兆效应研究——以西安世园会为例  

Tourist Flows’Precursor Effect of Event Based on Internet——A Case of Xi’an World Horticultural Exposition

作　　者：冯娜[1] 李君轶[1] 张高军[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062

出　　处：《河南科学》2013年第2期244-249,共6页Henan Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41001077);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2012T50794);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2011M501429);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(11YJC790234)

摘　　要：以西安世界园艺博览会为例,探索重大事件网络关注度和现实客流量之间的内在关系.通过百度搜索获取西安世界园艺博览会的用户关注指数,并搜集世界园艺博览会的日接待人数.运用相关和回归分析方法对其网络关注度和现实客流量的关系进行探讨.研究发现:重大事件网络关注度和现实客流量之间存在较强的相关关系,其网络关注度是现实客流量的前兆.具体表现在西安世园会上为:①周内网络关注度是其现实客流量的前兆,前兆效应大约为4 d;②节前后网络关注度的变化较之于现实客流量具有超前性,其前兆效应大约为7 d;③"十一"假前后网络关注度是现实客流量的前兆,其天数大约为6 d.The case of Xi＇ an World Horticultural Exposition was taken to explore the intrinsic relationship between degree of consumer attention of network and tourism flow of Mega-event. Through the Baidu searcher, we got the consumer attention index of Xi＇an World Horticultural Exposition, and gathered the tourist flow everyday. The correlation and regression analysis was used to discuss the relationship between its degree of consumer attention of network and tourist flow. We can draw the following conclusion that there is a strong correlation between network attention and tourism flow of Mega-event, and network attention is the precursor to tourism flow. Specific performances in the Xi＇an World Horticultural Exposition are as follows： Firstly, within the week, degree of consumer attention of network is the precursor of its tourist flow, and its precursor effect is about 4 days; Secondly, in holidays, degree of consumer attention of network is ahead of tourist flow, and its precursor effect is about 7 days; Thirdly, during the National Day holiday, the precursor effect is about 6 days.

关 键 词：网络关注度 旅游客流 前兆效应 世界园艺博览会 西安市 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]