面向任务的航材备件需求预测分析  

Analysis of Mission-Oriented Aeronautic Spare Parts Demand Prediction

作　　者：李晓宇 王新阁[2] 张磊[2] 赵刚 

机构地区：[1]装备学院研究生管理大队 [2]空军航空大学航空机械工程系 [3]空军95926部队

出　　处：《飞机设计》2013年第1期64-67,共4页Aircraft Design

摘　　要：航空备件是航空装备维修保障的物质基础,装备维修精确化要求对备件需求进行合理预测,而任务是其适时、适量的主要参照对象。本文以备件需求预测为研究对象,以任务为中心,针对备件寿命分布复杂的特点,综合考虑装备使用可用度和经济性约束,利用蒙特卡罗建立备件需求仿真模型,采用边际效益分析优化求解,并用实例验证了模型的可行性和有效性。As the material foundation of the Aeronautic equipment maintenance support, the precision maintenance demands spare parts supervise reasonably, which refers to the missions. Focusing on the system with multi-items with different life distributions, the paper takes the spare parts demand supervise as the research object, and the simulation method of Mento-Carlo is used to establish the model, in which operational availability of equipment can be maximized using this arithmetic while meets the limitation of spare parts cost, problem as a combination one, the marginal analysis method is presented to solve the optimization problem. An application example is also given to validate the feasibility and validity of the method.

关 键 词：备件需求 仿真 边际效益分析 面向任务 

分 类 号：TJ07[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]