不同通胀区制下货币政策工具选择研究  

On Options of Monetary Policy Instrument in Different Regimes of Inflation

作　　者：崔惠民[1] 李文庆 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院,安徽蚌埠233041 [2]国家发改委重大项目稽查办,北京100824

出　　处：《上海金融》2013年第3期46-51,117,共6页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：作者主持的教育部社科规划基金项目"垄断政府规制与竞争平衡研究"(10YJA790031)的资助成果

摘　　要：本文采用Andrews(1993)未知断点检验方法区分了通胀的不同区制,以此为基础通过SVAR方法探讨了不同通胀区制下货币政策工具选择问题。实证结果表明,通货膨胀序列在2003年7月份发生结构突变,并以此划分区制,发现2003年7月之后直接紧缩信贷工具调控通胀的效果得到加强,而间接紧缩信贷工具效果却稍有弱化,但整个样本区间,直接紧缩信贷额度政策在调控通货膨胀方面的效果更佳。这意味着直接紧缩信贷工具一直以来是中国调控通货膨胀的最佳选择,而且这一实践趋势还可能得到进一步加强。This paper makes a distinction among the different regimes of inflation via the method of Andrews(1993) unknown breakpoint test.On this basis the paper discusses the selection of monetary policy instruments in different inflation regime through the method of SVAR.The empirical results show that an abrupt change of pattern on inflation series happened in July 2003.Taking this as the demarcation of inflation regime,the thesis finds that of the tools of inflation control,the effect of direct credit tightening is enhanced since July 2003 while that of indirect credit tightening is slightly weakened.Yet of the entire sample,better effects have achieved via direct credit tightening policies.It means that the direct credit tightening tools have been the best option for the regulation of inflation in China will be further strengthened.

关 键 词：通胀区制 结构变迁 货币政策工具 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]