基于Copula函数的流域防污标准研究  

Research on the Anti-fouling Standards for River Basins Based on Copulas

作　　者：吴绍飞[1] 张翔[1] 邓志民[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2013年第3期58-61,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07210-006);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71073115);教育部博士学科点基金(2010014111003)

摘　　要：流域防污体系由各种水污染防治的工程措施和通过水量的合理调配和水质预测预警等非工程措施共同组成的;流域防污标准用来表征流域防污体系的防污能力,即防止水污染事故发生的能力大小。应用Copula函数,详细的分析了组成淮河防污体系的各方案防污标准问题。结果表明,方案2能在一定程度上降低高锰酸盐指数的超标风险,对流域高锰酸盐指数的防污标准有一定的提高;当流量小于3 000m3/s时,方案3对应的流域防污标准最高,流量大于4 000m3/s以上时,方案6能更好地降低氨氮水质的超标风险,方案3次之,采用方案6能最大限度地提高流域防污体系的防污标准;随着流量继续增大,同一方案对降低流域内水质超标风险的作用越来越有限,需要寻求其他的工程和非工程措施减小流域水污染事故的发生率,共同提高流域防污体系的防污标准。River basin anti-fouling system refers to those water pollution control engineering measures and non-engineering measures including water quantity operation and water quality prediction and early warnings. River basin anti-fouling standard represents the anti-fouling ability of the above system, that is, how much it costs to prevent the pollution incident. The system anti-fouling stand ard carried by each of the scheduling schemes is analyzed in detail based on Copulas. Results show that, the 2nd scheme can reduce the concentration of C（）D~, to a certain extent, that is, it has some on lowering the system anti-fouling standard C{）DM, ;when the flow rate is below 3 000 m：~/s, the 3rd scheme is the best one improving the system standard. While the flow rate is above 4 000 ma/ s, the 6th scheme will be best lowering the concentration of NH3 N, and the 3rd one takes the second place, in other words, the system standard of the 6th scheme is the highest. What＇s more, for a certain scheme, as the flow rate increases, the reduction of the water quality exceeding risk becomes more and more limited, and the system anti fouling standard improves more and smaller, in this case, other engineering and nowengineering measures should be explored to reduce the risk of exceeding rates so as to improve the system anti fouling standard at the same time.

关 键 词：防污体系 防污标准 水量水质联合调度 COPULA函数 联合重现期 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]